Creixement econòmic a Kenya

Si algú està interessat en el tema des d’un punt de vista tècnic, pot llegir aquí aquest paper:
Daniel M’Amanja, & Oliver Morrissey, “Foreign Aid, Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: a Time Series Approach,” Discussion Papers 06/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

Copiem les conclusions, que resumeixen l’anàlisi de dècades d’economia al país:

Although there are stylised facts that represent growth experiences of countries in general, growth remains a complex issue and growth regressions are as good as the data that goes into them. Growth is a summary of almost everything that goes on in a society and that being the case, it is never easy to pinpoint a couple of factors as key because these vary from country to country. The case for Kenya analysed in this paper was an attempt towards identifying some of these factors. Using a VAR approach, we found two long run relationships representing the output and private investment equilibriums. Output depends positively on private and government investment and imports, but negatively on net external loans. Private investment on the other hand appears to be positively related to foreign loans, but negatively to both government investment and imports.
Private investment has been a consistently strong determinant of growth both in the
short- and long- run. The implication here is that in order to stimulate and sustain economic growth in Kenya, policy makers need to pay closer attention to factors that determine private investment. Government investment has also exhibited strong positive effect on growth.
Nonetheless, it can be made more effective by re-directing it towards economic
infrastructure. Furthermore, the issue of efficiency needs to be considered to ensure public investment is made more productive. The policy recommendation therefore is for the government to improve the productivity of its investment so as to generate positive returns and enhance its complementary role to private sector. It should also institute measures that stimulate and support private investment such as mobilization of domestic savings and creation of a stable macroeconomic environment. Foreign aid in the form of loans can play a vital role in promoting growth directly or indirectly through private investment. It can be made even more productive if used to finance productive activities such as export promotion, infrastructure development, and domestic resource mobilization.
A topic for further research in this area is to replicate the methodology used in this
study on disaggregated data. For instance, it would be interesting to subdivide government investment into such categories as investment in roads, telecommunications, and social infrastructure and assess their impact on private investment and growth. The same could be done for imports – distinguishing investment goods, machinery, equipment and other inputs, and consumption. In a similar fashion, foreign aid could be disaggregated into project loans, programme loans, and any other appropriate classification. The findings discussed in this paper provide a starting point to understanding factors influencing growth in Kenya.


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